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ARAP ÜLKELERI VE TÜRKIYE ARASINDAKI NORMALLEŞME NIN PERDE ARKASI


Son dönemde Dünya gündeminin hızla gelişmesi uluslararası ilişkilerde hızlı değişimlere sebep olmaktadır. Son günlerde Arap Devletlerden Türkiye’ye yönelik ılımlı mesajlar geldiğini görüyoruz.

İlk adım olarak Katar ile normalleşme hamlesi geldi. Artık Katar ile Türkiye stratejik ortaklığı geçmiş kader birliği yapmış iki ülkedir. Yani biri giderse diğeri de kaybedecektir. Bu sebeple Körfez Ülkelerinin Katar’a uyguladığı ambargoya en sert tepkiyi veren ve hızlı şekilde üs kurarak olası bir müdahaleyi engelleyen, gıda ve diğer ürünlerde hızla ihtiyaçlarını karşılayan ülke Türkiye oldu. Normalleşme için dayatılan şartlarda Türk-Katar ilişkileri ve Katar’ın bağımsız politikası direkt hedef alınmıştır. Türkiye ve Katar dış politika olarak aynı hedeflere inanıyor. Bunlar İslam temelli bir kuvvet oluşturmak, İslam Dünyasına dış müdahaleyi engellemek, Batılı devletleri dengelemek, sömürü politikasından korunmak , bağımsız politikalar ile nüfus alanlarını genişletmek olarak açıklayabiliriz. Özellikle Türkiye’nin operasyonlarda ve silah teminlerinde Katar’ın yoğun maddi desteğinin olduğunu biliyoruz artık. Türkiye’nin bu kadar etkili politika izlemesinin en büyük sebeplerinden birisinin bu maddi destek olduğunu söyleyebiliriz. Arap ülkeleri de bu başarıyı görüyor ve ambargodan sonuç alamayacaklarını fark ediyorlar. Neticesinde yenilgiyi kabul edip normalleşme şartlarını geri çektiler. Trump siyasi olarak Suudi Arabistan ve müttefiklerine yoğun destek vermekteydi. Bunun temel sebepleri 400 milyar dolara yakın silah satışı ve İran karşıtlığıydı. Trump’ın iş adamı profilini göz önüne alırsak nereden fazla para alırsak desteği oraya verelim mantığı güttüğü aşikar. Bu destek ile Suudi Arabistan ve diğer körfez ülkeleri agresif politikalar izledi. Türkiye ve Katar’ın genişleyen etki alanı kendi alanlarını tehdit etmeye başladı.

Bunu gören Suudi Arabistan ve müttefikleri agresif politikalar izlemeye başladılar ki bunu Cemal KAŞIKCI cinayetinde gördük. İtiraf niteliğinde açıklamalar gelmesine rağmen ABD bir adım atmadı. Batılı bir çok devlet silah satışını askıya alırken ABD açıklamaları mantıklı bulduğunu açıkladı daha sonra ise Trump: ‘ Yapılan en amatörce ört-bas ‘ diyerek itiraf etmesine rağmen bir yaptırım uygulamaktan kaçındı.
Her ne kadar iktidar kaçınsa da halk ve siyasiler nezdinde Suudi Arabistan’ın cezalandırılması gerektiği fikri baskın gelmekteydi. Bu sebeple Biden’in bir vaadi de KAŞIKCI cinayetini aydınlatmak ve Suudileri cezalandırmak üzerineydi. Bunun da yolu Türkiye’den geçiyor. Hazırda Türkiye’de yürütülen bir dava var sonucu ABD tarafından alınan kararı etkileyecektir. ABD delil ve sonucun detaylarının paylaşılmasını isteyecektir. Veliaht prens aleyhine çıkan bir kararda Suudiler büyük bir krizle baş başa kalacaktır.

Bu sebeple yakınlaşarak cinayeti emir komuta zinciri dışında ele alınması için Türkiye’yi ikna etmeye çalışacaklardır. Türkiye’nin Libya’da, Azerbaycan’da, Katar’da , Somali’de, Suriye’de, Irak’ta, Afganistan’da , Kore’de , Ukrayna’da yaptığı operasyonlar ile asla müttefiklerini terk etmeyeceği gerekirse demir yumruğu ile savunacağını gördü Arap devletleri. Bunu ABD ve Batının aksine ekonomik çıkarları gözetmeden yapıyor. Bu da güvenilir olmasını pekiştiriyor. ABD’nin onları cezalandıracağını düşündüklerinde dengeleyici ve koruyucu olarak baş vurabilecekleri tek devlet Türkiye kalıyor.


14 Şubat 1945’te Kral Abdül Aziz bin Suud ile Başkan Franklin D.Roosvelt tarafından USS Quincy savaş gemisinde imzalanan antlaşmalar ile müttefiklik başlamış ve çıkarların örtüşmesi ile artarak devam etmiştir. Körfez savaşında ABD Suudi Arabistan ülkesini üs olarak kullanmıştır. Suudiler ABD’yi Orta Doğuya yapılan bir çok operasyonda doğrudan olmasa da dolaylı olarak desteklemiştir. Ancak ikiz kulelere yapılan saldırının 18 failinden 15’inin Suudi Arabistan vatandaşı olması ve Usame BİL Ladin’in yine bu ülke vatandaşı olması ülke ilişkilerini çok kötü etkilemiştir. Yaşanan bu yeni olaylarda bunun tekrar etme riskini beraberinde getiriyor.
Ortada tabi ki etki alanını genişleten İran’ın iki ülke içinde tehdit oluşturması da var tabi ki. ABD desteğini yitiren koalisyonun güçlü bir müttefik ile İran’ı dengelemesi gerekmektedir. Aksi takdirde Yemen’de yaşadıkları hüsranı bir çok ülkede yaşama riskleri var.
Hem askeri operasyonlardaki başarısı hem de Dünya devletleri üzerindeki etkisi Türkiye’yi bölgesel bir gücünde üstünde küresel bir güç olma yolunda kuvvetlendiriyor. Son yıllarda anlaşmazlıklarda Ülkelerin Türkiye’yi davet etmesi gerekirse Türkiye’nin müdahalesini istemeleri bunun en büyük kanıtı olarak duruyor. ABD er geç Orta Doğudaki etkisini yitirecek bunu bize tarih söylüyor. Peki Rus-İran ittifakını kim dengeleyecek? Kendi içinde parçalanmış, yıllarca sömürü kültürü ile ayakta kalmış ve büyük askeri operasyonları sadece tatbikatlarda yapan batı mı? hiç sanmıyorum . Türkiye olmadan kendilerini göç dalgasından bile koruyamazken Suudileri ve müttefiklerini nasıl korusunlar. Geriye tek seçenek Türkiye ve müttefikleri kalıyor. Yakın zamanda daha hızlı şekilde yatırım ve normalleşme adımları geldiğini göreceğiz.
Olası tehditlere karşı Türkiye’nin Suudi Arabistan da üs kurması ve askeri işbirliği neticesinde eğitim vermesi gündeme gelebilir. Yakın zamanda askeri iş birliği anlaşmaları imzalanırsa şaşırmayalım.

Suudiler ile verilen bu olumlu sinyallerden sonra BAE’den de ılımlı mesajlar gelmeye başladı. Bunun temel sebebi Suudilerin bölgenin abisi olması onlar ne derse diğerleri onu yapar. Tabi ABD desteğini kaybetmiş dokuz milyonluk bir ülkeyseniz bu daha göz korkutucu oluyor.
Türkiye açısından normalleşmede bir çok fayda var. Öncelikle bu ülkelerin elinde bulunan büyük para kaynakları Türkiye ekonomisini fazlası ile rahatlatacaktır. Kendi bloğunu oluşturan Türkiye’nin bu devletleri dahil ederek daha da güçlü bir birliktelik yaratmak istemesi önemli bir sebeptir. Doğu Akdeniz meselesinde Yunanistan’dan yana olan tavırlarını değiştirmelerini sağlamak bir diğer sebebidir. Bir de son yıllarda gelişen gergin politikalar neticesinde yalnızlığa itilmişken bunu yumuşatma ve tekrar yumuşak gücü kazanma isteği diye sebepler sunabiliriz. Siyasi olarak diğer ülkeler ile ne kadar iyiyseniz yatırımcıya o kadar güven verirsiniz bu da yatırımın gelmesi demektir. Döviz kurunun üstünde uluslararası ilişkilerin baskısının olduğunu düşünürsek bu normalleşme oraya da olumlu yansıyacaktır.

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